Constructing Bayesian networks for criminal profiling from limited data

A Bayesian Network Profiler for Wildfire Arsonists

Arson-caused wildfires have a rate of clarification that is extremely low compared to other criminal activities. This fact made evident the importance of developing methodologies to assist investigators in the criminal profiling. For that we introduce Bayesian Networks (BN), which have only recently be applied to criminal profiling and never to arsonists. We learn a BN from data and expert know...

When Stories and Numbers Meet in Court Constructing and Explaining Bayesian Networks for Criminal Cases with Scenarios

Evidential Reasoning for Forensic Readiness

To learn from the past, we analyse 1,088 “computer as a target” judgments for evidential reasoning by extracting four case elements: decision, intent, fact, and evidence. Analysing the decision element is essential for studying the scale of sentence severity for cross-jurisdictional comparisons. Examining the intent element can facilitate future risk assessment. Analysing the fact element can e...

The modeling of body's immune system using Bayesian Networks

In this paper, the urinary infection, that is a common symptom of the decline of the immune system, is discussed based on the well-known algorithms in machine learning, such as Bayesian networks in both Markov and tree structures. A large scale sampling has been executed to evaluate the performance of Bayesian network algorithm. A number of 4052 samples wereobtained from the database of the Tak...

A neural network applied to criminal psychological profiling: an Italian initiative.

The author presents a brief discussion of criminal profiling followed by an introduction to the Italian Neural Network for Psychological Criminal Profiling (NNPCP) project. This project, based on a so-called neural network and data mining, is an innovative technique being developed with the intention of extending criminal profiling to single serious crimes through the use of a computerized data...